Putting a February weather rollercoaster in context

In the past week, the #mewx (Maine Weather) hashtag on Twitter has been a particularly wide-ranging February grab-bag of that old saying, “if you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes.” Today, some climate change context for this.

Last weekend, some folks saw spring plant growth in their yards under bright, mild sunshine, and Portland notched a record high for Feb. 10, at 54 degrees Fahrenheit. The Press Herald had exemplary climate-linked coverage of people getting out in the warm day. (The previous record, set in 2023, was 52 degrees.)

On other days and in other places, it’s snowed hard — or thawed hard, or flooded, or sleeted or iced over. Wind gusts topped 50 mph in several places on a frigid Valentine’s Day, according to the National Weather Service.

Southern, Central and Western Maine are under a winter weather advisory through Friday morning (for a storm system known as an “Alberta clipper”), with temperatures in the teens. According to meteorologist Christian Bridges of WGME, it comes after the “warmest start to February on record in Maine.”

The NWS also reports that it hasn’t been below zero in Portland yet this winter, which isn’t unheard of. But broadly, data from the Maine Climate Office at the University of Maine shows that Maine’s average winter low is rising. Last year’s winter, overall, was 7.7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th-century baseline on average, ranking third behind 2002 (+7.8 degrees) and 2016 (+8.8 degrees). You can see exactly where recent days fall within Maine temperature norms and past records here, e.g., for Augusta.

“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get,” as some scientists have put it to me in the past. Maine has always seen a wide range of day-to-day conditions throughout its seasons. But if we zoom out and look at the trends among those anomalies and deviations, we see a clear pattern of warming, especially in winter, especially in the Northeast, according to the latest National Climate Assessment and many other sources.

Another interesting metric of this change: shorter cold snaps, measured by a new analysis from the nonprofit Climate Central. Portland’s cold streaks (defined as the most consecutive winter days with temperatures below the past 30 years’ average) have gotten 10 days shorter since 1970, they say, per federal data.

Climate Central lists myriad impacts from these shrinking cold spells, including trouble for fruit and nut trees that need winter cold to thrive in spring and summer, and drinking water disruption from a declining snowpack, especially in the West. They also note impacts to lake ice and other conditions key to winter recreation and to controlling disease-carrying pests like ticks and mosquitoes.

Climate Central also reports that the mild weather in southern and coastal Maine last weekend was made 1.5 to 2 times more likely due to human-caused climate change. This tool, the Climate Shift Index, uses computer models to compare today’s carbon-surged world with a hypothetical atmosphere without historical greenhouse gas emissions.

Science tells us that with a warming world comes greater volatility and more extremes — higher carbon levels than at any other time in history provide more fuel to energize and stir up the weather system. It can be easy to get used to a new normal for this kind of chaos in a seasonal, stormy place like Maine. This makes it all the more important to collect ongoing local observations, and to refer back to that big-picture context for clear evidence of climate change.

What we’re reading this week:

The latest installment in The New York Times’ excellent groundwater series looks at subsidence up and down the East Coast, where sinking land worsens sea level rise threats. Climate Monitor co-author Kate Cough also has the latest on mining and on groundwater policy in Maine.

Meanwhile, environmental groups are calling for moratoria on highway expansions in the name of the climate and public health, especially in disadvantaged communities. Tailpipe emissions are by far the biggest contributor to climate change in many states, including Maine. “Expanding highways is essentially like building new oil pipelines,” said one advocate in this Washington Post story. “It increases emissions in the same way.”

Here’s one more Post story you should read: The plastics industry would like a word with your kids.

 In other Maine environmental news:

Right whales:
Maine fishing gear has been linked to the death of a critically endangered North Atlantic right whale for the first time. And environmental groups are suing to force the finalization of ship speed rules that aim to protect the whales.

Storm aid:
Mainers affected by the December floods can get direct financial assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Another bill in the state legislature would set aside $50 million for small business relief.

Storm damage:
Many working waterfronts in Maine are adrift after significant damage in December and January. The Gardiner Hannaford’s won’t reopen until April after severely flooding in December. Governor Janet Mills wants to fast-track a promised $50 million for infrastructure repairs.

Mine rejected:
The state Land Use Planning Commission rejected a rezoning request for Wolfden Resources’ proposed metal mine in northern Penobscot County.

Storm trends:
Climate trends show the Northeast needs to prepare for more winter flooding like Maine saw in recent storms. This trend could also raise home insurance prices.

Stormwater:
Recent storms and more routine rains last year washed a record amount of stormwater and sewage into Casco Bay and other coastal waters.

Thin ice:
Maine has seen a string of deaths from people falling through lake and pond ice. The Sebago Lake Ice Fishing Derby, one of many scheduled for this free fishing weekend, will take place everywhere in the county but Sebago due to lack of ice cover.

Sea level rise:
Coastal Maine realtors contemplate a new normal at a course called “Living on the Edge.” And the new Roux Institute campus on the Portland waterfront will take rising seas and worsening storms into account in its design.

Grid upgrades:
The state will get $4 million in federal funds to improve the weather resilience of its electric grid, from upgrades for vulnerable poles to new software approaches.

Electric boats:
A marine company in Biddeford gets a federal award for its transition to electric boat engines and solar power.

Wind port:
Maine is nearing a decision on the proposed location of a future offshore wind staging port. Environmental groups are urging support for the project.

Beach access:
A Superior Court judge ruled against establishing public access rights to the intertidal zone on Maine beaches, likely sending the case to the state Supreme Court.

Power plant:
A developer wants to build a renewable-powered marina and manufacturing facility at Wiscasset’s shuttered fossil-fired Mason Station.

Shoreland zoning:
Towns and environmental groups are backing a bill would give locals officials more “teeth” to force compliance with shoreland zoning rules.

Divestment:
A report gives Maine’s state pension system a failing grade for its proxy votes on climate and environmental issues, a few years after Maine became the first state to enact legislation seeking pension divestment from fossil fuels.

Thanks for reading. See you next week.

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